The math is difficult for Kadima

Tzipi Livni should resign herself to the obvious: the math is too tricky to build a coalition.

First, a look at the numbers

Right Bloc

Likud 27
Yisrael Beitenu 15
Orthodox parties 23

Total: 65

Left Bloc

Kadima 28
Labor 13
Arabs 11
Meretz 3

Total: 55

Right away, one should dismiss the 11 seats comprising of three Arab parties (I put Hadash in this column even though they're a hybrid party) who will never sit in any coalition. So Livni can only count on a maximum of 44 seats on the left including her party.

Labor said they want to go to the opposition so take away those 13 potential seats. That leaves Livni with 31 MKs who will recommend her to sit in government. Should she sway Lieberman, that will give her 46 but don't bet on that.

But if Livni can somehow sway Labor to go with her, that will give her 44 MKs before Liberman. She would then need Lieberman to be on the cusp of power (at 59 seats). She would then have to sway one of the orthodox parties or the Arabs to support her from the outside. The Arabs would never support her even from the outside if Lieberman's involved. She'd have to make heavy concessions to one of the orthodox parties.

Likud can count on the orthodox to go with them. That gives them 50. They could then bargain with Lieberman and maybe even Labor. Either way, Netanyahu has the best chance clearly. He can even score a few defections from Kadima. There's some bad blood from their last leadership race.