Kingmaker?

When Israel's Campaign 2009 began, it was fully expected that the top three parties would be Likud, Kadima and Labor. These are considered the three mainstream parties in Israel after Kadima formed as a group of ex-Likud and Labor MKs under the leadership of Ariel Sharon. But one man, Avigdor Liberman, decided that things would be a little different at the top.

According to latest polls, Liberman's Yisrael Beitenu could finish anywhere between 18-19 seats with Labor bumped into 4th place with 14-17 seats. Likud and Kadima are in a tight battle to finish first (25-27 seats) and have the first dibs at forming a government.

What caused Liberman's party to do so well? First, an all-star list of candidates including ex-Likud MK Uzi Landau who is a darling of the right and ex-Likud minister David Levy's daughter.

Most effective however, has been Liberman's ability to tap into the electorate's anger. At the beginning of the campaign, Liberman talked about the issue of Arab Israelis and crime. As the operation against Hamas escalated, Liberman fully concentrated his efforts on Israeli Arabs. His slogan being: "Without loyalty there is no citizenship." Liberman claims that there are non-jewish Russians in Israel who cannot get citizenship and yet are loyal to the state. On the other hand, there are Israeli Arabs who are citizens but cheer on the Palestinians and the Hizbollah. If Liberman had his way, the non-Jews would be allowed to have speedy conversion and Arabs who are disloyal deported from the state.

Liberman has a point. MKs like Ahmed Tibi and Azmi Bishara who can sit in Israel's parliament, collect salary and eventually receive a pension should not be allowed to go visit Israel's enemies unless they are sent by the state. He has a point in saying that the Arab Israeli population represents a potential threat to the state in the form of a ticking timebomb. Anger and resentment among that population towards the state is never far from the surface. Much of it is justified. But let's not debate this further.

The effective populist nationalist campaign of Liberman is poised to make him a kingmaker between Tzipi Livni and Benjamin Netanyahu. Recall that it takes 61 seats to form a coalition government. If the final tally reads for example: Likud 27, Kadima 25, Yisrael Beitenu 19, Liberman might opt to ignore Likud's small victory and lend his 19 seats to Kadima, making them just 17 short of the magic number required. Add Ehud Barak's Labor with a potential 14 seats (after promising him the defence portfolio), and that will be a fairly stable government in terms of numbers once a few smaller parties are added to the mix.

All this points to the fact that Liberman could be the kingmaker beginning on election night. What will be offered to him is unclear. Netanyahu has promised to give him a key portfolio. Indeed, Likud seems like a more natural party for YB to elevate given Liberman's past ties to Netanyahu and the right-wing nature of the party. However, there is talk of a grand national unity coalition of Likud (27) Kadima (25) and Labor (14). Such a coalition would govern without the need for other parties and Liberman would be resigned to being leader of the opposition. Not a bad thing though. Netanyahu spent the last 3 years as the leader of the opposition and is now poised to win on Tuesday.

It could wind up being very difficult for any party to sit with Liberman in coalition. He's already been branded in the world as Israel's Zhirinovsky or Israel's Haider. In short, a racist and a fascist. This is hard for me to say. There is some merit in what Liberman says. It is an injustice that Ahmed Tibi could go talk to Hizbollah as a friend and then sit in Israel's parliament while Hizbollah hurls Katyushas. No state would tolerate such a thing.

One thing is for sure. He commands a lot of support and his party looks like it has some momentum behind its back. It has gone from 12 seats (he nearly edged Likud in support last time) to the high teens. At this rate, we could be talking about PM Liberman in 3-4 years.

But for now, will he decide who the next PM of Israel is?