A bad night for the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario

There is a very concrete rule in Canadian politics:  winnable by-elections need to be won by Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

With the party offering an ineffective candidate in Tony Genco in Vaughan, there was only one true by-election to contest.  A riding they were in fact defending.

Tonight, the Ontario PC Party had a very winnable by-election in Kitchener Waterloo.  Had the party kept its traditional level of support obtained by Elizabeth Witmer (40-43%), they would have hung on given the fact that the Liberals could get 25-30% at least.

But as it turns out, the PCs dropped 12% and so did the Liberals.  The NDP in turn picked up all the Liberal support and almost all PC support.  The Greens had a modest uptick. 

Tim Hudak campaigned for the by-elections with a message of "Stop McGuinty."  Well as it turns out in Kitchener Waterloo, they did.  Just not for his party.

The Ontario PC Party continues to suffer from a communications problem that has extended from the last election.  In the 2011 provincial election, there was a sense that Tim Hudak felt he could say anything and because he wasn't Dalton McGuinty, that he would coast to victory. 

As of tonight, that trend continues.  There is no vision in this party.  A few tiny policies and anger towards McGuinty.  Hardly an inspiring brand. 

The Ontario PC Party has not articulated a strong, principled and conservative vision for governing Ontario.  Ontario badly needs fiscal conservatism as it continues to dwindle in deficits and corruption. 

Paging Mike Harris...

Why Obama might lose

When I saw this picture on the left, I thought it was a good omen as to what is happening.  

I have a sense that the Obama presidency is crumbling, slowly but surely.  From the weight of its own hubris.

There is a lot of talk about how President Obama is very much still in the driver's seat to win the election.  It's all about the electoral college and how the map will play out in November. 

While it is true that the President has more paths to victory than does Romney, I believe that the map is not set in stone. 

Mr. Obama spent the first half of his term pushing through a stimulus that mostly helped his friends at the expense of the American people.  He then pushed a questionable healthcare bill through that nobody likes.  All the while, the economy moved at a tepid pace. 

Any sign of recovery in the economy has been short lived.  Unemployment is still very high and there is much malaise out there. 

And unlike Bill Clinton, the last Democratic president who will speak at the DNC this week, Obama did not use the defeat of his party in the midterms to reach out to Republicans and find ways to enact pro-growth policies. 

Instead, it's been much ado about blame and retreating to the golf course while the rest of the nation has coped with the slow economy. 

So far in this campaign cycle, the president has offered no solutions for helping the economy grow.  Instead, we have heard anti-business rhetoric like the "you didn't build that" speech. 

Obama's strategy appears to be pinned down to demonizing Romney, scaring certain voting segments from voting Romney and relying on holding enough of the states won last time to clinch a narrow victory. 

But I believe that will ultimately backfire.

Mr. Obama is turning off independents by the day which makes me believe that many states that voted blue in the past 4-8-12 or more years are in play.  States like Wisconsin and Michigan. 

Americans are looking for an optimistic message to turn the economy around and Romney is the one sounding it at the moment. 

The next 63 days will be very telling.  We could be in for a huge surprise come election day.