How will Israel win this operation?

As an Israeli ex-pat, I have a unique edge over some in that I understand hebrew and I can watch the media from there. Watching Israeli media, you tend to get a closer perspective of what is going on. You get a greater feel of the direct players in the conflict. Moreover, the media tends to ask the questions I often raise and that is: how will Israel win this operation? The answer has critical implications to its survival as a state.

In regards to this particular operation against Hamas, the reporters on Channel 2 news are already lowering expectations in answering that question. They're saying that the IDF will probably not stop all rockets. They say that is not the idea of this operation. The idea is to severely reduce rocket capability and render Hamas a severe blow. On that count, they say that Israel has already won. I agree.

If this is the point of the operation and the objective for victory, I say it is smart. In 2006, Israel said off the bat that its goal was to destroy Hizbollah altogether. What that did in effect was set the bar high for victory and Hizbollah's bar very low. All Hizbollah had to do to win was survive. And they did survive, getting an effective propaganda victory in the process. Israel came away with a lot more questions than answers. The IDF came away a defeated and spent force. While Hizbollah suffered severe blows and the operation was not entirely ineffective, none of this meant anything in the grand scheme due to the PR victory the terrorist group had won.

The success these days of a military operation is highly dependent on the question: how will victory be defined? In World War II, the answer was: destroy the Nazi regime completely and it happened so WWII was a success. When it comes to the Palestinians, the bar has to be set a bit low since terrorist elements are so deeply ingrained in Palestinian society. If you want to completely obliterate them, you have to destroy entire cities. Not even Israelis have the stomach for that. Sadly though, one day it may come to this. But this is not the day.

By setting the bar for victory low enough that it is realistic and high enough that it renders results, this operation has a high chance of success and meaning. Now if Hamas will be completely destroyed or close to, the operation will be a resounding success, "far exceeding expectations."

I can tell you from a further examination of Israeli media that Hamas is running scared. They prepared for a ground offensive but did not expect one. They interpreted Israel's lengthy decision not to retaliate to Qassams as weakness and thought military action from Israel would never come. Indeed, this operation was a long time coming. The cities, kibbutzim and agricultural settlements around the Gaza Strip have suffered for a long time.

Hamas interpreted Israel's inaction as weakness. What they didn't know was that Israel prepared this operation for approximately six months. We are now seeing the results of that preparation as the operation has been highly effective thus far. Hamas has been caught completely off-guard and the city of Gaza is being cut off. IDF engineers are destroying tunnels and infantry are taking out rocket launchers. In the meantime, the Israeli government is anticipating fresh talks that will accompany the new reality once the operation will go deeper into this month.

It is my opinion that this operation has already been a resounding success. Anything from now is a bonus and the IDF should keep going. While I feel for civilian life in Gaza, I know that the IDF is meticulous and careful (hence ground troops) and will work to limit the losses. I am optimistic that once the operation is complete, that Hamas will never be the same in a way that is good for the world and bad for them.