On talking to Syria

There's a good book that I read not too long ago called The Truth about Syria written by Barry Rubin. In there I read some good insights into the mentality of the Syrian regime, beginning with the late father Hafez and now his son, Bashar.

The long and short that he wrote was that Syria's regime thrives and survives from the conflict between the Arabs and the Jews. Since the Assads belong to the Alawite community in Syria which makes up only 19% (and are accused by many of not being real muslims), it must find a way to justify its existence to its people. So it uses the conflict to do so. After all, what better way to establish muslim cred amongst your people than to attack the zionist enemy who is "brutalizing your poor muslim Palestinian brothers." As for Lebanon, the Assads claim that is part of greater Syria and they use their proxies there to attack Israel.

It goes without saying that if Syria can be brought around and a real peace can be established with them, then Hamas and Hizbollah would be severely weakened. These groups largely exist because of Damascus' backing, which includes shelter for Hamas senior leadership in Damascus itself.

John Kerry has recently been sent to talk to Bashar Assad with the hopes of doing just that. I have no problem with that. But I say it won't produce anything. Assad probably views western backing as a curse rather than a blessing, given the dynamics of internal politics in Syria. Nor can you expect real peace between Israel and Syria.

Assad will smile in Kerry's face. Say a few hopeful things to the camera and once Kerry leaves, he'll go back to doing his own thing. He'll even say to his people "America won't tell me what to do." A typical day in Damascus.

But Obama won't care. He just wants to say he talked to the guy.