Friday, February 27, 2009

If this is what he means by change...

Then give me status quo!

A $1 trillion tax increase and a $1.75 trillion deficit. European social-democratic spending initiatives including the first steps towards a single-payer system.

Obama calls his budget "an investment in foundations." It is a Robin Hood budget. He is taxing the wealthiest Americans and corporations (at a time when they need as much liquidity as they can get) and paying for the healthcare of the poorest Americans. And even then, the budget calls for a massive deficit. Surely that is a sign that now is the time for fiscal restraint.

If you absolutely need to spend, then make allocations in infrastructure and give businesses targetted tax credits so they could spend. You know.. things that will actually help?

But my biggest objections are rooted in the tax increases. Even if you don't make $250,000 a year, you need to fundamentally object to the idea of raising taxes on one group over another and then redistributing it somehow. That is nothing short of theft. Taxes have a punitive function built in them. By raising taxes on individual and corporate income the message sent from government is: "we will determine how much income is too much to have and penalize it."

Brilliant in a bad economy. Absolutely brilliant.

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Biden attacks Jindal and surprise...he lies.

Came across this interesting story from a Shreveport, LA news channel.

Seems Joe Biden attacked Bobby Jindal for running a state that has lost 400 jobs a day asking "what would he do?"

Surprise. Surprise. When the facts were checked, it turned out Louisiana has actually ADDED jobs.

"In December, Louisiana was the only state in the nation besides the District of Columbia, according to the national press release that added employment over the month," says Patty Granier with the Louisiana Workforce Commission. According to her, not only is Louisiana not losing jobs. "The state gained 3,700 jobs for the seasonally adjusted employment," Granier said of the most recent figures.

While the Lousiana unemployment rate has gone up to 5.9% from 5.3%, this is being blamed on a bigger workforce in the state, not economic fundamentals. Even still, that is less than the national average of 7.2%.

Bottom line. When liberals run scared as they should from the threat that Jindal poses to them in about 4 years' time, the name of the game is to lie. It takes time to check a lie and by then, some damage has been done. Not everyone reads or watches the rebuttal to a lie.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

On talking to Syria

There's a good book that I read not too long ago called The Truth about Syria written by Barry Rubin. In there I read some good insights into the mentality of the Syrian regime, beginning with the late father Hafez and now his son, Bashar.

The long and short that he wrote was that Syria's regime thrives and survives from the conflict between the Arabs and the Jews. Since the Assads belong to the Alawite community in Syria which makes up only 19% (and are accused by many of not being real muslims), it must find a way to justify its existence to its people. So it uses the conflict to do so. After all, what better way to establish muslim cred amongst your people than to attack the zionist enemy who is "brutalizing your poor muslim Palestinian brothers." As for Lebanon, the Assads claim that is part of greater Syria and they use their proxies there to attack Israel.

It goes without saying that if Syria can be brought around and a real peace can be established with them, then Hamas and Hizbollah would be severely weakened. These groups largely exist because of Damascus' backing, which includes shelter for Hamas senior leadership in Damascus itself.

John Kerry has recently been sent to talk to Bashar Assad with the hopes of doing just that. I have no problem with that. But I say it won't produce anything. Assad probably views western backing as a curse rather than a blessing, given the dynamics of internal politics in Syria. Nor can you expect real peace between Israel and Syria.

Assad will smile in Kerry's face. Say a few hopeful things to the camera and once Kerry leaves, he'll go back to doing his own thing. He'll even say to his people "America won't tell me what to do." A typical day in Damascus.

But Obama won't care. He just wants to say he talked to the guy.

Thursday, February 19, 2009

The ever-frustrating Shimon Peres


Shimon Peres will have a mixed legacy when all is said and done. He has done a lot of right and a lot of wrong. He built Israel's army capability from scratch and did a lot of measures both internally and externally, to ensure that Israel would be a strong country. He was on the right wing of the Israeli Left, supporting settlements and is largely responsible for the ones that exist today.

On the wrong side of the equation, he designed Oslo and he supported Gaza disengagement. And now, he is the champion of withdrawal in exchange for peace.

But hold the phone for a second, Shimon Peres is now saying that he was wrong on disengagement!

The sad thing is that as Vice Premier and leader of the second party in Sharon's government (2005), he could have ensured that it wouldn't happen.

Sorry Mr. President. You can't take that one back. An admission of wrong won't suffice. I'm sure you feel bad about Oslo as well but that won't bring back all who died because of it.

I respect a lot of what Shimon Peres has done over a long career. But he has done plenty to piss off the exact amount of people. Largely the cause of why he never won an election outright.

This latest admission won't win him many additional friends.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

The War on Beef


Warning to those who love their hamburgers, cutlets and steaks. Enviro-fascists are coming for your food.

They claim that hamburgers are the hummers of food and, that, if you will switch steak with salad, it will be the equivalent of not driving your car a couple of days a week.
It's much ado about droppings. The claim is that cow dung produces 78% of methane produced by the livestock industry, which scientists claim is a harmful greenhouse gas. They claim that a switch to chicken will reduce gases by 70%.
All this amounts to a war on your beef. It could start with EPA warnings on your McDonald's hamburger and restrictions on where you can eat beef. If this sounds crazy, you are underestimating the global warming craze. Science has become a word that has replaced G-d. If science dictates so, then it must be absolute truth.
It's gonna get ugly! But if you value your freedom, you'll stop it dead in its tracks.


Monday, February 16, 2009

Bi-Partisanship is BS

I never quite understood why, in the United States, the party in power always talks about bi-partisanship. After all, the reason we have elections is to determine which side will get to dictate the agenda. There is a winner and a loser. And if the winner fails, they can be thrown out in two or four years, depending on the type of office.



I always felt that parties in power spoke of bi-partisanship as a way of buttering up voters who elected the losers. That and to have the ability to say that any failed policy was the product of both parties even though it was conceived by one. I think that if the stimulous bill will fail, the Democrats will say that they had Republican support (even though it was 3 Republican turncoat senators at best).



Bi-partisanship rarely lasts anyway. Pelosi spoke of it when she got in power and quickly neglected that. Think about it. Parties spend millions of dollars in order to end up SHARING the agenda? Heck no. They run to DICTATE the agenda. Bi-partisanship is a way of adding legitimacy to their ideas. It's a way of getting elected by appealing to centrist voters.

But do not think for a second that there is some righteous motive behind it to make for better legislation. Both parties think that their way is the only way.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

The math is difficult for Kadima

Tzipi Livni should resign herself to the obvious: the math is too tricky to build a coalition.

First, a look at the numbers

Right Bloc

Likud 27
Yisrael Beitenu 15
Orthodox parties 23

Total: 65

Left Bloc

Kadima 28
Labor 13
Arabs 11
Meretz 3

Total: 55

Right away, one should dismiss the 11 seats comprising of three Arab parties (I put Hadash in this column even though they're a hybrid party) who will never sit in any coalition. So Livni can only count on a maximum of 44 seats on the left including her party.

Labor said they want to go to the opposition so take away those 13 potential seats. That leaves Livni with 31 MKs who will recommend her to sit in government. Should she sway Lieberman, that will give her 46 but don't bet on that.

But if Livni can somehow sway Labor to go with her, that will give her 44 MKs before Liberman. She would then need Lieberman to be on the cusp of power (at 59 seats). She would then have to sway one of the orthodox parties or the Arabs to support her from the outside. The Arabs would never support her even from the outside if Lieberman's involved. She'd have to make heavy concessions to one of the orthodox parties.

Likud can count on the orthodox to go with them. That gives them 50. They could then bargain with Lieberman and maybe even Labor. Either way, Netanyahu has the best chance clearly. He can even score a few defections from Kadima. There's some bad blood from their last leadership race.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Reflections on Valentine's Day


I'm taking a small light-hearted break from politics to talk about a day that some will dread but many cherish. I'm talking about Valentine's Day.

I used to hate this day because usually I was spending it alone. Being single on V-day isn't really fun when everyone's rubbing their love in your face. You see people on the subway with flowers or boxes of chocolates or other cute things for their loved ones. It's a very nice practice but when you have nobody to practice it with, it actually kinda sucks. It reminds you that you're lonely.

Single people need not resent lovers on this day though. Loneliness in some respects is a choice. You can choose to pursue a relationship and be with someone. Granted, they have to agree. But if you put in an effort, you're bound to find at least someone who will go on dates with you and you could do something nice for them on V-day.

It's worth noting that my enthusiasm with this day has varies depending on my relationship status. That is understandable and certainly the reason why many single people hate it.

Celebrating love is a good thing because there's plenty of hate in the world. I know that sounds corny and hippie-like but there's merit to it. Each day we hear about hate, resentment and negativity. It's great that there's one day that can mute it all out.

The concept of a day of love is not monopolized by the western world. Jews have a day of love (in the summer) and so do many other faiths.

I admit that there is commercialism involved much like any other holiday. But who said that you have to get a generic gift in a store? You can create something too and it would be just as appreciated I'm sure (provided you do it for the reason of wanting to make something creative). You can take your lover on a romantic outing. The possibilities are endless.

The key to this day is to do somethinng that doesn't feel forced. If you do something that is forced, you are slave to the commercialism that says "you have to get something." You need to let it just flow out of you.

That is what I'll be doing on Saturday.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

First thoughts on the election

First off, nobody really won. Everyone kinda lost.

Kadima: Maintained its strength but ultimately lost by being unable to form a center-left coalition

Likud: Lost as they had a double-digit lead in seats over Kadima and the ability to form any government they wanted. Now it will be tricky. Yes the right has a narrow majority in Knesset, but does Netanyahu really want to lead a band of loose right-wing parties? I would love it if it could work but he tried before and it wasn't pretty.

Yisrael Beitenu: Had 18-19 seats in polling but ended up with a narrow 4-seat pickup from the last election.

Shas: Was the fourth largest party in the Knesset. Now it's been relegated to fifth. Took a gamble on being too demanding of Tzipi Livni that she called an election.

Labor: Reduced to a fourth-place rump. A shadow of its former glory days.


Now the hard work begins to build a coalition. I hope Bibi will lead it and somehow Kadima will go for that. It will be difficult, but for the interests of Israel, both of these parties need to work together, perhaps with Yisrael Beitenu as the 3rd partner. And hopefully rule for 4 years.

Monday, February 09, 2009

Spender Nation vs. Saver Nation



The figures are pretty scary. American debt is out of control and set to continue growing with the current "stimulous" bill. As you can see by the first graph, America's gross debt is running out of control. That includes current obligations and future obligations such as social security.


Public debt implies the current obligations only. But this line is slated to rise significantly given the current stimulous bill.


The second graph shows debt as a fraction of GDP. As you can see, this too is at its highest level since the 1950s.


The average American owes $37,703 when factoring the national debt. That number is slated grow over time.


By contrast, the average Canadian owed $21,505 in 2005 when factoring the national debt. While that number is slated to grow due to the government's current turn to deficits, it will not get anywhere close to the American number.


Americans love to berate Canadians for being socialist due to our healthcare system. In reality, government spending habits this side of the border have been more fiscally conservative for at least 14 years. It was the Liberal government of Jean Chretien that reversed Canada's course from deficit spending to turning consecutive surpluses and using surplus money to pay down debt. Stephen Harper's Conservatives continued that course until recently when they resigned themselves to running a deficit.


By contrast, the US has run perpetual deficits as if they could forever borrow without penalty. The lone exception in the past 8 years was in 2001 when there was a small surplus.



As Canada was becoming more fiscally conservative, America became looser with its money. Sure, the war in Iraq can be blamed for some of that. But as can be seen, even when the deficits were getting smaller, the national debt was still getting piled on. The drops in the budget deficit imply that the US government had some control over its budget even at the peak of a war in Iraq.

I have a theory about why Canada penny pinches and why America spends. Canada's budget is roughly 50% healthcare with costs that can rise. Mindful of this, the government strives to save for future increases in the health budget.

Also, the bulk of political power lies in the urban centres of the country. These places are already developed and do not require much government spending. Rural areas don't elect many MPs and are subsequently neglected. Also, MPs are not free to vote as they choose so earmarks never come into play. The federal budget is set from above and the party votes for it with one voice.

By contrast, the makeup of the American system is such that every representative and senator is independent of their party and their only motivation is to stay in power. The only way to do so is to produce results for your district (i.e. earmarks). Thus, you see a lot of pork in any bill that passes congress. Pork adds unto the government debt. There is no sense of national responsibility. Each congressman or woman is merely concerned with keeping their seat.

When Canada's public debt rises, Canadians know who to blame. When America's debt rises, it's not so clear. Is it the President? Is it the Congress? Is it a combination of both? The lack of a central source of blame means that the debt can continue to rise unchecked.

I also noticed that there is a cultural element to all of this. Right or wrong, Canadians appear to save while Americans appear to spend. Credit card debt seems to be more of a problem in the States than in Canada. I don't know why this is the case but it does appear to be this way.

It is also worth noting that Canadian banks are much more conservative in their lending practices. Good luck finding an interest-only mortgage here. You're lucky if you can find a 5% down mortgage but more likely you will settle for a 10% down mortgage. And you will have to prove significant assets in the process.

The $823 billion "stimulous" bill is like throwing gasoline on a fire. It's more debt and debt is what caused the bad economy in the first place. America could take a lesson from Canada which has been less susceptible to the economic downturn. Simply put, saving during good times will serve you well during bad times. When you pay down debt when things are good, you leave room to borrow when things go bad. But if you borrow during good times and bad, you are asking for trouble.

Sunday, February 08, 2009

Kingmaker?

When Israel's Campaign 2009 began, it was fully expected that the top three parties would be Likud, Kadima and Labor. These are considered the three mainstream parties in Israel after Kadima formed as a group of ex-Likud and Labor MKs under the leadership of Ariel Sharon. But one man, Avigdor Liberman, decided that things would be a little different at the top.



According to latest polls, Liberman's Yisrael Beitenu could finish anywhere between 18-19 seats with Labor bumped into 4th place with 14-17 seats. Likud and Kadima are in a tight battle to finish first (25-27 seats) and have the first dibs at forming a government.



What caused Liberman's party to do so well? First, an all-star list of candidates including ex-Likud MK Uzi Landau who is a darling of the right and ex-Likud minister David Levy's daughter.



Most effective however, has been Liberman's ability to tap into the electorate's anger. At the beginning of the campaign, Liberman talked about the issue of Arab Israelis and crime. As the operation against Hamas escalated, Liberman fully concentrated his efforts on Israeli Arabs. His slogan being: "Without loyalty there is no citizenship." Liberman claims that there are non-jewish Russians in Israel who cannot get citizenship and yet are loyal to the state. On the other hand, there are Israeli Arabs who are citizens but cheer on the Palestinians and the Hizbollah. If Liberman had his way, the non-Jews would be allowed to have speedy conversion and Arabs who are disloyal deported from the state.


Liberman has a point. MKs like Ahmed Tibi and Azmi Bishara who can sit in Israel's parliament, collect salary and eventually receive a pension should not be allowed to go visit Israel's enemies unless they are sent by the state. He has a point in saying that the Arab Israeli population represents a potential threat to the state in the form of a ticking timebomb. Anger and resentment among that population towards the state is never far from the surface. Much of it is justified. But let's not debate this further.


The effective populist nationalist campaign of Liberman is poised to make him a kingmaker between Tzipi Livni and Benjamin Netanyahu. Recall that it takes 61 seats to form a coalition government. If the final tally reads for example: Likud 27, Kadima 25, Yisrael Beitenu 19, Liberman might opt to ignore Likud's small victory and lend his 19 seats to Kadima, making them just 17 short of the magic number required. Add Ehud Barak's Labor with a potential 14 seats (after promising him the defence portfolio), and that will be a fairly stable government in terms of numbers once a few smaller parties are added to the mix.


All this points to the fact that Liberman could be the kingmaker beginning on election night. What will be offered to him is unclear. Netanyahu has promised to give him a key portfolio. Indeed, Likud seems like a more natural party for YB to elevate given Liberman's past ties to Netanyahu and the right-wing nature of the party. However, there is talk of a grand national unity coalition of Likud (27) Kadima (25) and Labor (14). Such a coalition would govern without the need for other parties and Liberman would be resigned to being leader of the opposition. Not a bad thing though. Netanyahu spent the last 3 years as the leader of the opposition and is now poised to win on Tuesday.


It could wind up being very difficult for any party to sit with Liberman in coalition. He's already been branded in the world as Israel's Zhirinovsky or Israel's Haider. In short, a racist and a fascist. This is hard for me to say. There is some merit in what Liberman says. It is an injustice that Ahmed Tibi could go talk to Hizbollah as a friend and then sit in Israel's parliament while Hizbollah hurls Katyushas. No state would tolerate such a thing.


One thing is for sure. He commands a lot of support and his party looks like it has some momentum behind its back. It has gone from 12 seats (he nearly edged Likud in support last time) to the high teens. At this rate, we could be talking about PM Liberman in 3-4 years.


But for now, will he decide who the next PM of Israel is?

Thursday, February 05, 2009

In praise of the National Religious Party


If anyone asks me who I would vote for if I was in Israel on the 10th of February, they would be surprised to hear my response. Yes I want Benjamin Netanyahu to form the government and I believe he will. But ultimately, there are values that I would like to see spread in Israel that could not necessarily be advanced by a large Likud Party.


The party I would vote for is now called the Jewish Home the new National Religious Party. In the photo, you can see the slip of paper that represents their party when you go and vote. It will have the letter Bet, the second letter of the alphabet.

Those who know me would say that I am not a religious person. However, I take pride in being Jewish and would like to see greater education when it comes to the religion. It is part of our heritage even if some people practice less than others. I am not a good practitioner of Judaism but I take great pride in the history, traditions and Judaism's link to the State of Israel. I have admiration for orthodox people and would love to strengthen those religious Jews who have no qualms with me.


Case in point, the right of the Jews to settle in Israel is biblically linked as the first Jews built a kingdom there during that time.


The National Religious Party (or whatever they go by these days) understands that and works to advance that. Their interest is national unity between secular and orthodox alike. Although they would like all food in Israel to be kosher and have no businesses operate on Shabbat, they are not for the creation of a theocratic state. This puts them in sharp contrast with the ultra-orthodox parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism). This was most notably presented in their ability to find co-operation with the ultra-secular Shinui Party. On the Palestinian issue, they are willing to give up land to the Palestinians but not land of heritage value to the Jews. They supported the 2003 Roadmap to Peace but placed conditions on the Palestinians to demonstrate a departure from terrorism.


Their principles are called "Ahavat Yisrael" (love of Israel). They believe that religious observance can only be spread by acting as role models for others through their daily lives. One of the greatest things about the party is that in the entire history of their existence, not a single member they elected was indicted on corruption. That is great leadership by example!


The party is the only orthodox party that runs women in realistic spots on their list. In the past, they did elected female MKs by mustering enough support. Shas and UTJ don't have a single woman on their lists.


The party runs yeshivos (religious schools) and a youth movement (Bnei Akiva). They were the proponents of religious high schools in Israel. Schools that teach Torah in addition to all the essential subjects. They stress that all yeshiva students go to the army and they never curse the country.


I also have a family connection to this party. My grandfather that I never knew (he died before I was born) was an active supporter and my uncle supports them unless Likud is in a fight for top spot. My grandfather z"l was observant and I take pride in supporting the party in his memory.


These are people I would like to elevate as their devotion to the state is unparalleled. It is rooted in their faith and they generate a greater awareness of Jewish heritage and traditions without being "in your face" about it. I welcome that. It certainly can't hurt anyone.

Wednesday, February 04, 2009

If you won the lottery, would you quit your job?

What I am about to discuss is a problem we would all want to have: what to do with your job if you just won the lottery.

Every shmuck you see on TV who has won claims they will continue to work even though their bank account just received a multi-million dollar injection.

Makes you ask why. After all, we work because it's our prime source of income. Without it, there will be no money for daily expenses. A person who just won $10 million can put it in a 3% interest-bearing account and earn $300,000 a year. Not bad at all.

So why work? Where would the motivation be to work? Well maybe you love your job. It gives you satisfaction. Maybe you're a highly valued employee and an asset to your company. Maybe you feel guilty about leaving. Rest assured though, companies are quite equipped to replace you. Just ask anyone who's been laid off lately.

Maybe having a ton of cash fall on your lap makes you nervous and you think it will change you for the worse so you want to keep things as "regular" as possible? Nothing solid financial planning can't solve.

Here's what I would do: if I really loved my job and in particular the field I was at, I would just open up a new business or buy one already in existence (after careful consideration of course). That way, I would remain busy, ensure that I didn't burn the cash on non-growth items (like a boat or a car). If I worked in a particular niche was too expensive to duplicate, I would just open up a new franchise like a bookstore or a Tim Horton's just to be active and have some money come in. A significant chunk I would place in an interest-bearing account, never to be withdrawn (say 60-80% of the money) and just live off the annual interest. I would use an immediate $1 million to take my lover (she knows who she is) on a trip. Get a few non-growth items, etc etc.

But as far as my job goes, I would just leave it for the next guy who might need it more than me.

I am opening the comments section for your opinions.

Tuesday, February 03, 2009

In defense of Israel's electoral system

With 7 days to go to the Israeli election, I am compelled to comment about it as it is ripe on my mind. I will begin by defending the system itself.

There are many critics who say that the pure PR system in Israel contributes to an unstable coalition everytime. In fact, there have been predictable timelines of roughly 3 1/2 years from 1999 to the present (legislative elections. The 2001 election was direct prime ministerial). If it was so unstable, there would be more frequent elections. By comparison, America has a fixed election every 2 years and there you have majority parties.

Israeli elections tend to produce convincing majorities for blocs, either the left or the right, with each bloc comprising of 3-4 parties. They tend to agree on foreign policy but differ generally on economic issues. Thus, Israel's foreign policy has tended to be uniform with the coalition tending to side with the opinion of the Prime Minister on matters of foreign policy. Not always but generally this is the case.

Where the parties have differed is over fiscal policy. For example, the Sephardi party Shas tends to agree with Netanyahu's Likud on foreign policy but is its polar opposite when it comes to the social safety net. Shas favors more while Likud favors less.

What forces the parties to eventually compromise over a budget is the threat of an election. Governments tend to prefer staying in power rather than facing the electorate. But what if Shas for example stands firm and refuses to budge? That is why coalitions tend to be built with as many parties as possible with a stable coalition tending to be in the ballpark of 70-80 members of Knesset (out of 120).

Some might argue that this severely limits the governing party's ability to enact fiscal policy. This is true to an extent but such parties have to be smart enough to conclude that if they fail to break 25% of the vote, they will not be able to have a monopoly over fiscal policy and would have to concede to hearing other voices over the budget.

In theory, a party can win over 50% of the vote and rule unchallenged. But the people prefer to elect coalitions. The highest vote share a party in Israel ever got was 40%. The Likud Party in 1988.

The system was created to encourage as many voices from within society to run for election. Often the electoral process creates awareness of various issues like pensions, banks, immigration hardships, etc etc. This is a welcome thing.

It's true that since 1996, the top parties' share of the overall seats has been quite reduced at the expense of smaller parties, contributing to a "pizza parliament." Just compare these numbers:

Top two parties seats in parliament

1992 - 76
1996 - 66
1999 - 45
2003 - 57*
2006 - 48

* the 1996 and 1999 elections had an additional direct vote for Prime Minister in addition to voting for the party of your choice. This more than likely contributed to the top two parties having a smaller share of the overall seats. In 2003, the system was restored causing a brief uptick (to 57) but even this was sad. Until 1996, the top two parties could muster together a majority. The 1980s were characterized by national unity governments between Labor and Likud (who together had around 90-95 seats combined).

Another contributor is the decline of the Labor party. Once a juggernaut that contended for the role of governing party, it is now fighting for 3rd place with Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beitenu. If Kadima ever collapses, Likud will remain as the sole party capable of building coalition governments.

According to latest polls, Kadima and Likud the two leading parties will not muster a majority if they combine forces. The most optimistic projection is 29+24 = 53 seats. This means it will be a frazzled parliament again with four significantly large parties and then four small parties. The right bloc is slated to win 65 seats so Netanyahu can have a right-wing government if he so chooses.


Ultimately, the people have the power to elect more stable options for coalition-building but they do not. They opt for the smaller parties. Often in each election cycle, a new party jumps out of nowhere. In 2006, it was the Pensioners Party who went from zero to 7 seats. Such phenomena just add to the instability.However, it doesn't mean the system is broken. The system gives the people a choice and this is what they choose. However, I would argue that this is no liability at all.


Israel's electoral system has many benefits: the ability to vote either for a ruling party or a party that will aid the ruling party in order to shape the policy you want. Often with a big tent party like the Republicans, you get watered-down policy designed at attracting new voters. With this system, Likud can be center-right and its coalition partners can be further to the right.


The problem of frazzled coalitions can be solved if the top parties will strengthen. This can happen in one or two election cycles. It all depends on how the public mood goes.

Monday, February 02, 2009

Awesome letter

This was in the National Post today. Really worth the read.

I am the soldier who slept in your home
From an Israeli soldier, an open letter to a resident of Gaza
Yishai Goldflam, National Post Published: Monday, February 02, 2009
Spencer Platt, Getty Images


Hello. While the world watches the ruins in Gaza, you return to your home, which remains standing. However, I am sure that it is clear to you that someone was in your home while you were away.


I am that someone.


I spent long hours imagining how you would react when you walked into your home. How you would feel when you understood that Israeli soldiers had slept on your mattresses and used your blankets to keep warm.


I knew that it would make you angry and sad, and that you would feel this violation of the most intimate areas of your life by those defined as your enemies with stinging humiliation. I am convinced that you hate me with unbridled hatred, and you do not have even the tiniest desire to hear what I have to say. At the same time, it is important for me to say the following in the hope that there is even the minutest chance that you will hear me.


I spent many days in your home. You and your family's presence was felt in every corner. I saw your family portraits on the wall, and I thought of my family. I saw your wife's perfume bottles on the bureau, and I thought of my wife. I saw your children's toys and their English-language schoolbooks. I saw your personal computer and how you set up the modem and wireless phone next to the screen, just as I do.


I wanted you to know that despite the immense disorder you found in your house that was created during a search for explosives and tunnels (which were indeed found in other homes), we did our best to treat your possessions with respect. When I moved the computer table, I disconnected the cables and laid them down neatly on the floor, as I would do with my own computer. I even covered the computer from dust with a piece of cloth.


I know that the devastation, the bullet holes in your walls and the destruction of those homes near you place my descriptions in a ridiculous light. Still, I need you to understand me -- us -- and hope that you will channel your anger and criticism to the right places. I decided to write you this letter specifically because I stayed in your home.


I can surmise that you are intelligent and educated and there are those in your household that are university students. Your children learn English, and you are connected to the Internet. You are not ignorant; you know what is going on around you.


Therefore, I am sure you know that rockets were launched from your neighbourhood into Israeli towns and cities.


How could you see these weekly launches and not think that one day we would say "enough"? Did you ever consider that it is perhaps wrong to launch rockets at innocent civilians trying to lead a normal life, much like you? How long did you think we would sit back without reacting?


I can hear you saying "it's not me, it's Hamas." My intuition tells me you are not their most avid supporter. If you look closely at the sad reality in which your people live, and you do not try to deceive yourself or make
excuses about "occupation," you must certainly reach the conclusion that the Hamas is your real enemy.


The reality is so simple that even a seven-year-old can understand: Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip, removing military bases and its citizens from its Gush Katif settlements. Nonetheless, we continued to provide you with electricity, water and goods (and this I know very well, as during my reserve duty I guarded the border crossings more than once, and witnessed hundreds of trucks full of goods entering a blockade-free Gaza every day).


Despite all this, Hamas launched missiles on Israeli towns. For three years, we clenched our teeth and restrained ourselves. In the end, we could not take it anymore and entered the Gaza Strip, into your neighbourhood, in order to remove those who want to kill us. It's a reality that is painful but very easy to explain.


As soon as you agree with me that Hamas is your enemy, and that because of them your people are miserable, you will also understand that the change must come from within. I am acutely aware of the fact that what I say is easier to write than to do, but I do not see any other way.


You, who are connected to the world and concerned about your children's education, must lead, together with your friends, a civil uprising against Hamas.


I swear to you that if the citizens of Gaza were busy paving roads, building schools, opening factories and cultural institutions instead of dwelling in self-pity, arms smuggling and nurturing a hatred of your Israeli neighbours, your homes would not be in ruins right now. If your leaders were not motivated by hatred, your home would not have been harmed. If someone would have stood up and shouted that there is no point in launching missiles on innocent civilians, I would not have to stand in your kitchen as a soldier.


You must be familiar with Singapore. The land mass there is not much larger than the Gaza Strip. Yet, Singapore is a successful, prospering and well-managed country. Why not the same for you?


In my opinion, we have a lot more in common than you might imagine. I am a civilian fighting in the reserves, not a full-time soldier, and in my private life I have nothing to do with the military. However, I have an obligation to leave my home, put on a uniform and protect my family every time we are attacked. I have no desire to be in your home wearing a uniform again and I would be more than happy to sit with you as a guest on your beautiful balcony, drinking sweet tea seasoned with the sage growing in your garden.


The only person who could make that dream a reality is you. Take responsibility for yourself, your family, your people and start to take control of your destiny. How? I do not know. Maybe there is something to be learned from the Jewish people who rose up from the most destructive human tragedy of the 20th century, and, instead of sinking into self-pity, built a flourishing and prospering country. It is possible, and it is in your hands. I am ready to be there to provide a shoulder of support and help to you.


But only you can move the wheels of history.
Regards, Yishai.